2017 Forecasting Workshop

2017 Forecasting Workshop Agenda

Tutorial: Integration of Uncertainty Forecasts into Power System Operations

Chair – Part 1: Sue Haupt, NCAR: Background, Methods and Meaning of Uncertainty Forecasts

Overview of Techniques and Issues Associated with Probabilistic Forecasting, Sue Haupt, NCAR
Extracting Uncertainty Information from Probabilistic Forecasts, Matt Wandishin, NOAA
Providing Uncertainty Information to End Users in the Electric Sector, Eric Grimit, Vaisala
Different Utilizations of Probabilistic Forecasts, Erik Ela, EPRI

Chair – Part 2: Bob Zavadil, Enernex: Applications and Value of Uncertainty Forecasts

Recent ERCOT Developments in Applications of Uncertainty Forecasts to System Operations, Nick Steffan, ERCOT
Applications of Uncertainty Forecasts to Extreme Net Load Prediction at HECO, John Zack, AWS/Truepower
Applications of Uncertainty Forecasts to Extreme Net Load Ramps, Bruce Tsuchida, Brattle
Use of Uncertainty Forecasts in Decision Making in System Operations, Frank Puyleart, BPA

 Forecasting Workshop – Applying Meteorology in Power System Planning and Operations

Welcome and Overview Session

Introduction, Mark Ahlstrom, NextEra Energy Resources/WindLogics
Welcome and Keynote Remarks, Mark Lauby, Sr. VP, NERC
Meeting Overview, Charlie Smith, UVIG

Session 1: Meteorology, Climate and the Electric Sector
Session Chair: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused

Melinda Marquis, NOAA, American Meteorology Society (AMS) Viewpoint 
Sue Haupt, NCAR, World Energy and Meteorology Council (WEMC) Viewpoint 
Dave Souder, PJM, Large Independent System Operator (ISO) Viewpoint
Chris Clack, Vibrant Clean Energy, Meteorology and Power System Planning for a Large Share of Variable Generation
Tim McJunkin, INL, Forecast Applications to Dynamic Line Rating
Corinna Möhrlen, WEPROG, Meteorological Data Collection: Results from Eirgrid’s Met Mast and Alternatives Study
Nick Keener, Duke Energy, Opportunities for Improved Coordination between Meteorology and Operations

Session 2: Where is the Value in Improved Forecasts?
Session Chair: Melinda Marquis, NOAA

David Maggio, ERCOT, Impacts of Near-Term Forecasts on ISO and Market Participant Decisions
Yok Potts, MISO, Reliability Value of Improved Forecasts
Eric Grimit, Vaisala, Value of More Accurate Power Forecasting in Global Electricity Markets
Carlo Brancucci, NREL, The Value of Wind and Solar Power Forecasting Improvements

Session 3: Global VG Forecasting, Market Implementation and Operation, and
R&D Experience with a Focus on Uncertainty
Session Chair: Bob Zavadil, Enernex

Malte Siefert, Fraunhofer/EWIS, German VG Forecasting and Market Operation Experience
John Zack for Dora Nakafuji, HECO, Hawaiian Experience with the Integration of Uncertainty Forecasts into the EMS
Nick Steffan, ERCOT, ERCOT Experience with the Integration of Uncertainty Forecasts into the EMS and MMS
Stephanie Dubost, EDF, French Experience with Wind and Solar Power Forecasting Tools
Jacques Duchesne, AESO, VG Forecasting and Market Operation Experience from Alberta
John Zack, AWS Truepower, Improved Wind and Solar Ramp Forecasting in Tehachapi

Session 4: Forecasting Benchmarking, Trials and Evaluations
Panel Chair: Aidan Tuohy, EPRI

Corinna Möhrlen, WEPROG, IEA Wind Task 36 Status and Progress
Tiffany Maupin, Vaisala, Wind and Solar Forecasting Trials Experience: Do’s and Dont’s, Part 1: Introduction to the IEA Wind Task 36 Guideline for Forecasting Trials
John Zack, AWS/TrueWind, Wind and Solar Forecasting Trials Experience: Do’s and Don’ts, Part 2: Introduction to the IEA Wind Task 36 Guideline for Evaluation of Forecasting Approaches and Selection
Craig Collier, DNV/GL, Why Do Forecast Trials Often Fail to Answer the Questions for which End-users Need Answers: A Forecaster’s Point of View
Will Hobbs, Southern Company, A Third Party Approach to Solar Forecast Benchmarking and Evaluations

Session 5: Distributed PV Forecasting and Market Integration: Where are We Going?
Panel Chair: Tassos Golnas, DOE

Erik Ela, EPRI, Thoughts on DER Forecasting and Market Integration
Tom Hoff, Clean Power Research / Frank Monforte, ITRON, A Combined DG/Load Forecast
Anne Lenz, energy and meteo, Distributed PV Forecasting
John Zack for Dora Nakafuji, HECO, SWIFT Forecasting

Session 6: What’s New Under the Sun?
Session Chair: Mike Knowland, ISO New England

Jim Blatchford, Clean Power Research Consultant, Meteorology Considerations for the US Total Solar Eclipse on Aug. 21, 2017
John Zack, AWSTruepower, Meteorology Considerations for the US Total Solar Eclipse on Aug. 21, 2017
Rebecca Webb, CAISO, Expected Operating Impact of the US Total Solar Eclipse on Aug. 21, 2017 in CAISO
Nick Keener, Duke Energy, Expected Operating Impact of the US Total Solar Eclipse on Aug. 21, 2017
Nicole Segal, NERC, Expected Operating Impact of the US Total Solar Eclipse on Aug. 21, 2017

Session 7: Renewable Energy, Energy Trading, Market Evolution and the Role of Forecasting
Session Chair: Rob Gramlich, Consultant, Grid Strategies LLC

Corinna Möhrlen, WEPROG, Use of Probabilistic Forecasting Tools in Energy Trading
Jeff Lerner, Vaisala, FTRs and Virtual Energy Trading
Johnny Wang, NextEra Energy Resources, Energy Trading Opportunities in Volatile Energy Markets
Laurent Huet, Reuniwatt, Intra-day and Day-ahead Forecasting for Energy Traders on European Markets

Session 8: Changing Markets – Reliability, Economics and Forecasting in a Wind, Solar and Storage Future
Session Chair: Mark Ahlstrom, NextEra Energy Resources, WindLogics

Rob Gramlich, Consultant, Grid Strategies LLC, Future Market Design Trends
Dave Maggio, ERCOT, Evolution of Market Thinking in ERCOT
Anne Lenz, energy and meteo, Forecasting and Trading with Virtual Power Plants
Michael Goggin, AWEA, What Does a Level Playing Field Look Like?