2024 Forecasting & Markets Workshop

Presentations from our 2024 Forecasting & Markets Workshop held in Salt Lake City can be downloaded below.

To view recordings of workshop sessions, click here for the ESIG YouTube channel.

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Tutorial: Weather Datasets for Power System Planning
Moderator: John Zack, MESO

State of the Art in Datasets
John Zack, MESO

Problems with Existing Datasets 
Justin Sharp, Research Leader IV, EPRI

Evaluation and Adjustments to the ERA5 
Jim Wilczak, Research Meteorologist, NOAA

CONUS404, A High-resolution Hydro-climate Dataset
Sue Haupt, Senior Scientist, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Applying the WIND Toolkit and WTK-LED to Grid Integration
Luke Lavin, Researcher III, NREL

Historical and Forward-Looking Datasets
Cameron Bracken, Earth Scientist, PNNL

Energy Exascale Earth System Model
Robert Arthur, Staff Scientist, LLNL

Sup3rCC Dataset
Grant Buster, Data Scientist, NREL

Creating Hourly Weather Timeseries for Future Climates
David Larson, Technical Leader, Grid Ops & Planning, EPRI

Using the Data Properly – Example and Facilitated Discussion: A Case Study
Josh Novacheck, Transmission Planning Engineer, NextEra Energy Resources; Chair, ESIG System Planning Working Group

Introduction / Opening Remarks

Opening Remarks
Mark Ahlstrom, President, ESIG Board of Directors & NextEra Energy Resources

Keynote: Inventing the Future
Melanie Frye, President & CEO, WECC

Industry Overview
Charlie Smith, Executive Director, ESIG

Opening Plenary Session: AI Applications to Forecasting and Markets
Session Chair: Mark Ahlstrom, President, ESIG Board of Directors & NextEra Energy Resources

AI Applications to Hazardous Weather Forecasting
Aaron Hill, Assistant Professor, University of Oklahoma

AI Applications to Long Range Energy Forecasts
Benjamin Toms, Founder, Intersphere

Cloud Nowcasting Using Deep Neural Nets
Eric Grimit, Technology Manager, Applied Meteorology, Vaisala

Use of AI in Creating Market Offers
Alan Smith, Senior Fellow, NextEra Analytics

Operational Forecasting Trends and Challenges
David Larson, Technical Leader, Grid Ops & Planning, EPRI

Session 2A: Improving DER Participation in Organized Markets
Session Chair: Erik Ela, Technical Executive and Program Manager, EPRI

MMS Development of Aggregated DER Bids and Implementation in CAISO for FERC Order 2222 Compliance
Ashmin Mansingh, Global VP of Engineering, Siemens Grid Software
Jay Jones, Senior Advisor, Market Technology Support, CAISO

Coordinating Aggregator Participation in Markets with the DSO for FERC Order 2222
Dylan Cutler, Head of Product, Camus Energy

Aggregate Distributed Energy Resource (ADER) Pilot Project
Dave Maggio, Principal, Market Design & Analytics, ERCOT

Aggregator Point of View
Geoff Ferrell, Sr. Vice President, Global C&I and VPP Project Business, sonnen

Session 2B: Growth of Large Loads
Session Chair: Debbie Lew, Associate Director, ESIG

Growth of Large Loads
Debbie Lew, Associate Director, ESIG

Forecasting Growth of Large Loads
Victor Ni, Senior Market Strategy Advisor, MISO

Data Center Driven Load Growth
James Jones, NOVEC

New Manufacturing Driven Load Growth
Joseph Church, Senior Forecast & Load Analyst, Salt River Project

Industrial Thermal Batteries
Michael Hagerty, Principal, The Brattle Group

Session 3A: Considerations for 100% Zero Marginal Cost Markets
Session Chair: Robin Hytowitz, Energy Management Advisor, NextEra Analytics

Market Evolution Towards 100% Clean Electricity
Chris Geissler, Director, Economic Analysis, ISO-NE

Scalable Markets for the Energy Transition
Arne Olson, Senior Partner, Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.

Markets for Resource Adequacy and Electricity as a Public Good
Kelli Joseph, Senior Fellow, Electricity Market Design & Climate, University of Pennsylvania

A Developer’s Vision for Clean Energy Markets
Jessica Greenberg, Sr. Manager, Growth Strategy & Power Markets, Enel North America

Session 3B: Advances in Wind and Solar Forecasting
Session Chair: Craig Collier, Chief Meteorologist, Head of Operations, Energy Forecasting Solutions

Research Activities to Improve NOAA’s High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model
Dave Turner, Chief Scientist, NOAA Global Systems Laboratory and Manager of NOAA’s Atmospheric Science for Renewable Energy Program

Spreads and Gradient Spreads: An Alternative to the Standard Probabilistic Forecast
Armin Kahnert, Sr. Meteorologist, energy and meteo systems GmbH (Germany)

Use of Cloud Nowcasting for Short-term Solar Energy Predictions
Pascal Storck, Head of Technology, Vaisala

Solar Forecast Impact on Hybrid Resource Scheduling
Chris Bremer, Sr. Data Scientist, Salt River Project

Session 4A: Retail Pricing
Session Chair: Paul Sotkiewicz, President, E-Cubed Policy Associates

How Well Do Customers Respond to Time Varying Retail Rates?
Sanem Sergici, Principal, The Brattle Group

New Directions in Real Time Pricing
Carl Linvill, Principal, Regulatory Assistance Project

C&I Customers Access to Wholesale Prices in RTOs
Devin Hartman, Director, Energy and Environmental Policy, R Street

Retail Pricing, A View from the Trenches
Obadiah Bartholomy, Manager, Distributed Energy Strategy, SMUD

Session 4B: Power System Impacts of Rapid Electrification
Session Chair: Matt Schuerger, Senior Fellow, ESIG

Infrastructure Impacts of Electrification
Jun Wen, Principal Advisor – DSO Strategy & Implementation, Southern California Edison

Navigating the Challenges of Rapid High-density Load Additions
Zachary Pollock, Director of Grid Strategy & Emerging Technology, Xcel Energy

Geospatial Forecasting of Electrification Load and Effects on the T&D System
Chelsea Petrenko, Associate Director, Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.

Unintended Consequences of Building Conversions to Heat Pumps
Nick Miller, Principal, HickoryLedge LLC (presented by Debbie Lew, Associate Director, ESIG)

Session 5A: Forecasting & Markets
Session Chair: Jonathan Black, Manager, Load Forecasting, ISO-New England

Solar Eclipse: Forecasting, NWP Models and Future Needs
Adam Simkowski, Principal Meteorological Risk Analyst, MISO
Lars Rohwer, Senior Meteorologist, energy and meteo systems GmbH (Germany)

ARPA-E PERFORM Project Results on Flexibility Options and Reserves for DA Markets
Elina Spyrou, Leverhulme Lecturer, Imperial College London (UK)

Market Challenges with High Solar Generation
Donny Holaschutz, Energy & Sustainability Consultant – Managing Partner, Inodu

Wholesale Electricity Markets and Resource Adequacy with High Clean Energy Generation Targets
Bethany Frew, Group Manager, Price Signals for Grid Services Group, NREL
Nongchao Guo, Energy Economist & Modeler, NREL

Session 5B: Utility and ISO Probabilistic Forecasting Developments
Session Chair: Timothy Duffy, Manager, Demand Forecasting & Analysis, NYISO

Recent Developments in Probabilistic Forecasting in AEMO
Andrew Akman, Principal Data Scientist, AEMO (Australia)

Using Probabilistic Forecasting at SPP
Jeff Baskin, Meteorologist / Technical Analyst, SPP

Probabilistic Forecasting Developments in CAISO
Lysha Matsunobu, Power Systems Forecaster Specialist, CAISO

MISO Uncertainty Platform
Congcong Wang, Manager Operations Risk Assessment, MISO

Use of Probabilistic Forecasts in Operational Risk Assessment
Riaz Khan, Sr. Operations Engineer, ERCOT

Session 10: Bridging the Gap between Atmospheric Science and Grid Modeling
(Co-sponsored by Renewable Energy Committee of the American Meteorological Society)
Session Chair: Cathy Finley, Associate Professor, University of North Dakota

Connecting the Dots: Status and Prospects
Justin Sharp, Research Leader IV, EPRI

Modeling Extreme Events in the Western Interconnection
Jon Jensen, Engineer, Reliability Modeling, WECC

Status of Climate Change Projections on Wind & Solar Resources
Jared Lee, Project Scientist II, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Forecasting Tail Events and Impact on Energy Price
Jennifer Newman, Vice President of Atmospheric Science Research, REsurety

Session 11: Closing Plenary Session – Panel Discussion of the Issues and Challenges in the Energy Transition
Session Chair: Sue Haupt, Senior Scientist, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Summary Comments from the Power System Perspective
Paul Sotkiewicz, President, E-Cubed Policy Associates

Summary Comments from the Meteorology Perspective
John Zack, MESO