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Webinar: The Use of Probabilistic Forecasts in Theory and Practice
October 22, 2019 @ 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm EDT
Featured Speakers: Dr. Sue Ellen Haupt is a Senior Scientist and Deputy Director of the Research Applications Laboratory of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. She leads and oversees projects in artificial intelligence, applications of weather forecasting, surface transportation, renewable energy, wildland fire management, aviation applications, hydrology applications, and more. She is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, Director of Education for the World Energy and Meteorology Council, Adjunct Professor of Meteorology at Penn State University, and serves on various other professional committees and boards.
Timothy Miller is the Manager of Modeling and Data Integrity at Southwest Power Pool. He has fourteen years of experience working within Southwest Power Pool’s Planning and Operations organizations. During this time, he has worked to maintain high levels of data integrity in the Energy Management System real-time models, support the SPP Integrated Marketplace, develop regional transmission expansion plans in expectation of the long-term needs of the footprint, highlight the benefits of transmission expansion, and facilitate membership involvement in SPP Working Groups. Prior to joining SPP in 2005, Tim studied at John Brown University receiving a Bachelor’s degree in Engineering.
Dr. Pengwei Du is currently Lead Engineer-Renewable Integration with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Prior to this, he was a senior research engineer with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Dr. Du has extensive experiences in simulation, modeling, protection and control of power systems, renewable energy integration, microgrid, and cyber security. He graduated from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute with a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering.
Moderator: Charlie Smith, ESIG
Registration Cost: FREE
Webinar Abstract: Variable Renewable Resources (VERS) require meteorological forecasts to operate optimally and economically. Because both the atmosphere and the electrical system with significant amounts of VERS contain large uncertainties, a probabilistic approach to forecasting and planning becomes necessary to optimize the weather-dependent systems. Using probabilistic information provides knowledge that can be used to enhance situational awareness, assess multiple potential grid scenarios, optimize economical outcomes, leverage smart statistics, and improve plans. Probabilistic forecasts present a way forward to better deal with the many specific tasks in power system operations. These forecasts provide the possibility both to make decisions based on a “best guess” and to be able to prepare for the less likely (lower probability) scenarios or extremes that may cause security issues on the grid, such as too high costs for balancing services, or equipment misoperations or failures. We will describe some of the leading ways that probabilistic forecasts are currently being used and show how they might additionally be leveraged to enhance power system operation and planning. Specifically, we’ll hear about how ERCOT and Southwest Power Pool mitigate risk posed by low probability and extreme conditions by using probabilistic forecasts.
