The global transition to renewable energy sources, and in particular the increased penetration levels of wind and solar in many jurisdictions, has led to new challenges in power system reliability associated with the integration of these variable, weather-driven generation resources into the electric grid. Forecasting of the variable generation on a wide range of time scales has emerged as essential tool for almost all electric systems with a significant amount of wind and solar generation. However, despite their widespread use and demonstrated value, there is ample evidence that grid systems do not realize the maximum potential value of forecasts in managing uncertainty due to misalignments between the attributes of the forecasts in use (information content, error distributions, format etc.) and the information needed for optimal decision-making. This issue is being addressed by many research and development projects funded by both private and public sources and conducted by a diverse set of experts at many locations around the globe. The challenge is to synergize the knowledge gained in these projects and bring the benefits to a broad range of global grid operators ranging from the most advanced large grid systems to small economically constrained island systems. This requires extensive communication and collaboration.
Forecasting for the Weather-Driven Energy System
One of the most wide-reaching collaborative activities focused on the renewable energy forecasting issues is Task 51, Forecasting for the Weather-Driven Energy System of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Wind Technology Collaboration Program (TCP). Task 51 activities span multiple domains via three work packages: (1) weather forecasting, (2) power forecasting, and (3) end-user applications. These work packages encompass 13 interlinked work streams, addressing critical issues ranging from different forecast time horizons, such as intra-day, day-ahead, and seasonal weather forecasting, to uncertainty quantification throughout the entire modelling chain of renewable energy projects. By bridging fields such as verification code development, data sharing, and policy, as well as incorporating cutting-edge data science and artificial intelligence techniques, Task 51 is driving comprehensive solutions to the complexities of renewable energy forecasting community and contributes to a global understanding and forecast solution development, implementation, and evaluation. One of the major achievements of Task 51 was the production of the “IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions,” which provides users with guidance on the selection and evaluation of optimal forecasting solutions for specific applications. It has been published as an open access book in order to disseminate the knowledge widely among the industry, including in developing countries that have limited experience with the use of forecasting tools in the integration of significant amounts of wind and solar generation into smaller grid systems.
Collaboration Activities
In addition to the collaboration of international experts on specific issues (i.e., the work packages and work streams), Task 51 also convenes at least one workshop per year, alongside numerous online meetings and webinars, all of which are publicly accessible and usually free of charge. The collaboration extends to presentations on the Task 51 activities and special interactive workshop sessions to get community feedback conducted as part of international energy and meteorology workshops and conferences. These venues provide the opportunity for experts to exchange insights, address emerging challenges, and align on best practices, as well as for the industry to connect with the working groups within Task 51. In addition, the Task 51 participants actively collaborate with six other IEA Technology Collaboration Programs focused on photovoltaics, hybrid plants, grid integration, LiDAR and remote sensing, airborne wind energy, and international entities such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the World Energy and Meteorology Council (WEMC), and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) to ensure that their work is both globally relevant and aligned with international standards.
An important recent focus of the Task 51 efforts is the work on forecast data input and verification, in partnership with IEC SC8A Grid Integration for Renewables Workgroup 2. This initiative aims to develop standardized methods for evaluating power system forecasts, a crucial step in improving the reliability and accuracy of renewable energy predictions and supporting the wider integration of renewables into grid systems worldwide.
Dealing with Extremes
As the next event in its annual workshop series, Task 51 will be sponsoring an “Extremes in the Power System” workshop in Boulder, Colorado, in summer 2025. This event will represent a crucial milestone in the ongoing international collaboration to address a broad spectrum of weather-related extreme power system events that can present critical operational issues for power systems. These events come in many forms and occur on a wide range of space and time scales. Some are associated with what is commonly considered “extreme weather” such as high wind or heavy precipitation, but others are linked to what appears to be innocuous weather conditions (such as extended periods of low wind speeds or low solar radiation, droughts, etc.) and correlation-type events. This workshop will address the skill in forecasting these events and the type of forecast information and performance that is needed for power system operators to effectively address this wide range of event types when large amounts of wind and solar generation are on the system.
More information can be found at the Task 51 webpage at iea-wind.org/task51. If you have an interest in participating in any of its activities or would like additional information, you are encouraged to contact the Task 51 leadership team.
Corinna Möhrlen
Managing Director and Co-Founder
WEPROG
John W. Zack
Owner
MESO, Inc.
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