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Background

Probabilistic forecasting of wind and solar plant output has made significant progress in the last 10 years. In spite of the progress, uptake has been uneven in the industry, with some system operators already making good use of it, and others not at all. Those using it have found significant benefit in application to dynamic reserve allocation, ramping needs, posturing the system to deal with a period of major uncertainty due to an upcoming weather event, and determination of behind-the-meter PV impact on load forecast. Existing applications represent relatively early use cases with additional work required to progress to more advanced uses.

The rate of utility adoption of VRE is proceeding quite quickly. As the variability and uncertainty of the VRE forecasts increase, it will become increasingly important to take advantage of the maximum amount of information available from VRE forecasts to enable continued secure and reliable system operation. There is much to be gained by like-minded parties coming together to share what they have learned, learn what others are doing, identify future needs, and avoid reinventing the wheel.

Objective

The objective of this User Group is to share lessons learned, best practices, R&D needs, and ideas for future applications of probabilistic forecasting among system operators facing increasing penetrations of renewable energy. The purpose of participation is fourfold:

  1. For the less advanced operators to come up the learning curve more quickly
  2. For the more advanced operators to learn from each other and help those less advanced
  3. For everyone to contribute ideas for future developments and applications
  4. To engage with the forecasting and research communities on a periodic basis to discuss forecasting needs and latest technology advances and solicit input into more advanced applications.

User Group Chair: Nitika Mago, ERCOT
Nitika Mago is currently the Manager for Balancing Operations Planning in the Operations Forecasting and Ancillary Services Planning department at ERCOT.